Friday, August 08, 2008

Property market predictor

Are house prices approaching freefall or will they stabilize and start climbing again?

Fred Harrison has a record going back 25 years in predicting property price cycles. His 1983 book Power in the Land researched these from the late 1700s and showed that they follow an 18 year pattern, resulting, in recent times, in peaks in 1954 & 1972. Adding another 18 years gives the well known peak around 1990 and another 18 years brings us up to date. The Nationwide UK house price average peaked at £184,723 in September 2007 and in July 2008 was 9% lower at £169,316.

Someone who can predict like this deserves to be listened to by governments. Sadly this is not Fred Harrison’s experience after contacting both the Conservative government in 1983 and New Labour in 1997. They ignored him and let their economic situations boom excessively, leading to the early 1990’s recession and with a new one developing now, yet again.

Click on the link below to watch a short video of only 7 minutes. Hear what happened and, incidentally, also learn some inside information about property prices. With the financial situation looking increasingly dire it is becoming vital to be well informed:

See also this BLOG for 5 & 11 Nov 2006 and 9 July 2007.

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