Showing posts with label ECOBATE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECOBATE. Show all posts

Friday, December 16, 2016

ECOBATE 2016 Plamen Ivanov & David Ricardo's banking wisdom for the 21st century

Plamen Ivanov's Ecobate 2016 paper (University of Southampton) David Ricardo and Modern Monetary Reform Propositions: A critical Analysis reveals what one of the founders of modern economics thought about banking and banking sytems. Ricardo writing in 1824 understood that banks create the money supply, but until very recently this has not been at all widely acknowledged in academia. Imagine that such a fact, fundamental to all things economic has been hidden in plain sight for nearly 200 years! In the UK it was only in 2015 that the Bank of England acknowledged this openly in its May 2015 Working Paper No. 529: Banks are not intermediaries of loanablefunds — and why this matters  Authors:  Zoltan Jakab and Michael Kumhof .

Up to that point the function of banks has been overwhelming assumed by the ordinary person (and by many who should have been financially more knowledgeable?) that bank lending was merely the passing on of previously deposited money. The function of the creation of money by ordinary banks has not been given its due recognition in economics textbooks. Ivanov cited Werner (Dec 2014): Can banks individually create money out of nothing? - The theories and the empirical evidence, who set out to show in real time how a bank branch created a loan of  €200,000 for him in 2013 which, to prove it was real money, he deposited in another bank  He also proved that a fractional reserve amount representing  his loan at the central bank, was not involved (thus showing fractional reserve banking is obsolete, or at least only a half-truth) and that no already existing money at the bank was involved in making up the loan amount.  

Ricardo wanted a National Bank to be set up by the government to be run by 5 salaried Commissioners. The then existing Bank of England charter would expire and its premises might be purchased and staff transferred to the Commissioners. The Commissioners were to be independent of the government; they should create the money needed to redeem government debt to the Bank of England; they would create the money needed by the national financial system but should not create it for the government to borrow. Government needs were to be met by taxation or borrowing from privately owned banks. Ricardo wanted a full reserve system of banking, as championed by Positive Money . See also Martin Wolf.  

Ivanov thinks we have moved beyond the safeguards which Ricardo expected of full reserve banking. People would find ways to game the system and perform money creation outside the official constraints, and how do you handle new phenomenon such as digital currency e.g. bitcoins? Full reserve banking is likely to be costly and impractical, and it might cause the economy to contract. But we do need a safeguard to keep the economic system safe and Ivanov adopts Ricardo's idea of a nation's banking system divided into districts, where stability arises from many small independent parts rather than a few large players.  With many small banks the failure of one or two, through unwise money creation for their lending, will not wreck the whole system as was the danger in the 2007/8 crisis in the UK, when a very few large banks dominated. But our economic system is still in thrall to its top-heavy banks. However local independent banks of the German Sparkassen type with distinct areas of operation are a practical and realistic safeguard. Plamen Ivanov is involved in the establishment of a local community bank of that type. His paper was a ready made answer to Prof David Llewellyn's Ecobate keynote speech 'Are banks over-regulated today?' with its theme that more types of banking model are needed for safety. 

From the Ecobate 2016 Conference and with additional information.  Posted by Charles Bazlinton Director of Local First CIC which is promoting local banks.    

Saturday, November 12, 2016

ECOBATE 2016 Best Paper Awards

ECOBATE 2016 was held in two Winchester locations this year. The academic papers were presented at the University of Winchester Business School in Romsey Road and from mid-afternoon the public session was back in its usual place down at the Guildhall. In a new development for ECOBATE, the morning's academic input of nearly 70 papers was recognised through Best Paper Awards which Sir Vince Cable presented as follows:

1. Category - Banks vs Financial Institutions 
Robert Unger,  Deutsche Bundesbank. 
BEST BANKING PAPER
Traditional banks, shadow banks and the US credit boom - credit origination versus financing  
  
2. Category - Global vs local banking
Sefika Betul Esen, Prof Yener Altunbas, Prof John Thornton, Bangor.
BEST REGIONAL GROWTH PAPER
The effect of banks on regional economic development 

3. Category - Monetary policy 1 
Giorgio Caselli, Catarina, Figueira, Joseph G. Nellis, Cranfield. 
BEST MONETARY PAPER
Monetary policy, ownership structure and bank risk taking: Evidence from Europe 

4. Category - Financial Development
Martin Eihak, Davide S Mare, Martin Melecky. Edinburgh. 
BEST INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION PAPER
The nexus of financial inclusion and financial stability

5. Category - Financial history 
Konstantin Kiesel, Felix Noth. Halle
MOST INVENTIVE PAPER
When debt spells sin: Does religiosity guard against over-indebtedness?

6. Category - Commodities, Gold & FX
Shubasis Dey. IIMK/Kerala
BEST HISTORY PAPER
Historical events and the gold price 

7. Category - Banking and Risk
Ariel J Sun, Jorge A Chan-Lau. Cass Business School
BEST APPLIED NETWORKS PAPER
Financial networks and interconnectedness risk in an advanced emerging market economy 

8. Money Creation & Eurosystem 
Alexey Ponomarenko. Central Bank of Russia
BEST INTERNATIONAL CREDIT CREATION PAPER
The note on money creation in emerging market economies 

ECOBATE 2016 was organised by ARBE which was founded by Prof Richard Werner (Chair International Banking, University of Southampton). ARBE (Association for Research on Banking and the Economy) is also holding the Oxford Seminars at 15.30 hrs on the next four Fridays 18, 25 Nov; 2, 9 Dec. at Linacre College, St.Cross Rd, Oxford OX1 3JA

Saturday, October 08, 2016

Michael Hudson reviews James Galbraith's: 'Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice'

Michael Hudson in a review of James Galbraith’s new book: 'Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice’ says of current solutions to the post-financial crisis world that: 
‘financial interests override sovereign  self-determination  and national referendums on economic and social policy…[and] impose austerity and force privatisation selloffs that are basically foreclosures on indebted economies. Galbraith rightly calls this financial colonialism.’
Real-world economics review issue 76 carries the review.

It points out that resolutions to the current situation have been available since the 1920s. The book covers the economic traumas that the Greek nation is going through.  The prospect is that similar measures across the Eurozone will turn it into a dead zone along the lines of Latvia’s... 
‘disastrous ‘’success’’ story involving drastic emigration and declining after-tax wages’.

The solutions imposed through bond holders involve widening fiscal deficits, with countries being forced to sell off their land and mineral rights, public buildings, electric utilities, phone and communications systems, et al, at distress prices.


The problem is that the EU’S central bank (ECB) does not finance deficit spending to revive employment and economic growth. Additionally the German constitution imposes austerity by blocking funding of other countries budget deficits (except for quantitative easing to save bankers).  The 2010 bailout by banks is likened to the unpayably high German reparations imposed in the 1920s. The hope of the lenders is that deep austerity and privatisation will enable the repayments, when what is really needed is bad debt writeoffs and an expansionary fiscal policy.  

Lord Turner back at ECOBATE 2011 spoke on 'managing credit creation to deliver social optimality' See this Blog link.  
And (same blog) Chris Giles of the FT in 2013 has: 'Turner defends permanent printing of money'.

In the You-Tube film 'Debt-Free and Interest-Free money' Richard Werner exposes the false notion that debt alone is the only solution for government expenditure:  'The government can spend money into circulation, money it has issued'.

Galbraith's book highlights the rule in Europe by the dictats of finance and banking favouring right wing governments, along with opposition to any left wing alternatives to austerity. They won in Greece.

The UK has a different Conservative government from 3 months ago that looks to be setting policy ideals derived from left, right and centre. How radical will its economic changes prove to be? Chancellor Philip Hammond is soon to make an Autumn Statement on the economy. Does he realise the powers he has to invest for the common good without increasing debt? 

Friday, September 23, 2016

Prof David Llewellyn: 'Most serious banking crisis ever'. Are we safer now? Answers at ECOBATE 2016?

The 4th European Conference on Banking and the Economy (ECOBATE 2016) takes place on Wednesday 12th October in Winchester with its mix of academic seminars and free public meetings.  This year for the first time the University of Winchester's Business School (West Downs Campus, Romsey Road, Winchester) is hosting the academic side until mid-afternoon and then from 3.45pm the free public session is back across the city in its usual place - the Bapsy Hall at Winchester's Guildhall.

Up to 60 academic research papers are expected to be presented on banking and finance covering a wide range of topics from 8.30am at the University's Business School.

At the Guildhall (free to the public) Prof David T Llewellyn of the University of Loughborough is a keynote speaker. On a YouTube film (2015) speaking on the financial crisis of 2007/8 he considers that we have experienced:  'the most serious banking crisis ever on record' and his work is to help lower the chance of it happening again and to protect bank customers and save taxpayers future costs if it does. He has worked as an economist with Unilever, the UK Treasury, the IMF, Halifax Building Society and the Stakeholder Group of the European Banking Authority. He is highly respected for his banking research and regulatory advice.

Sir Vince Cable another keynote speaker was Secretary of State for Business Innovation and Skills in the UK's Coalition Government to 2015. He regularly features in the media as an independent commentator on finance and the economy and political issues.



Among current topics expected to to be addressed at ECOBATE 2016:

  • Negative interest rates
  • Cash - are they trying to ban it? 
  • Cybercurrencies 
  • Monetary reform and monetary policy
  • Ethics - who are the stakeholders in our financial systems & who is profiting?
  • BREXIT and its effects on the economy
  • Economic growth and the lack of it.  

See the Eventbrite registration website   for more detail.

The ECOBATE conferences have been running from 2011 and are the brainchild of Professor Richard Werner who has chaired them. He is leading banking academic (Chair International Banking, University of Southampton). One of his current projects is the formation of Hampshire Community Bank a pioneering venture to create a new culture of banking for the common good in the UK.

ECOBATE  travel: There is no onsite parking at either venue but there are efficient park-and-ride schemes on the edge of Winchester. The main line railway station (Winchester) is about a 20 minutes walk away from both venues. See the conference websites for late updates and for more details on speakers.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

ECOBATE 2016 speakers Profs: Sir Vince Cable; Yanis Varoufakis & David Llewllyn. Gaston Reinesch (Central Bank Governor)

The fourth ECOBATE conference (European Conference on Banking and the Economy) is to be held on Wednesday 12th October in Winchester and the submission date for papers is 1st July.  These conferences are unusual as they have always attracted interest from academics and from the general public. Lord Adair Turner  acknowledges the influence of ECOBATE founder Richard Werner on his thinking:
'Richard's writings on monetary policy and the importance of a credit focus are absolutely important, and very important to the evolution of my thinking.' 

The format will be similar to earlier years with free public sessions and keynote speakers from mid-afternoon:

  • Sir Vince Cable, former Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills. Hon. Prof. Univ. of Nottingham.
  • Professor David T. Llewellyn, Prof. of Banking, Univ. of Loughborough
  • Gaston Reinesch, Gov.Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Member of the General Council of the European Central Bank (ECB)
  • Professor Yanis Varoufakis, Prof. of Economic Theory,Univ. of Athens, Greece; former Minister of Finance, Greece

This year's ECOBATE will be held under the auspices of the Association for Research on Banking and the Economy a new charity (Reg. No: 1166422) set up by Professor Richard A. Werner with charitable objects as follows (Charity Commission website):

THE CHARITY'S OBJECT IS TO ADVANCE THE EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC IN GENERAL (AND PARTICULARLY THOSE INTERESTED IN THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY) ON THE SUBJECT OF THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY AND TO PROMOTE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH FOR THE PUBLIC BENEFIT IN ALL ASPECTS OF THAT SUBJECT. THIS MAY INCLUDE AWARDING SCHOLARSHIPS OR GRANTS AND ORGANISING EDUCATIONAL EVENTS.

Also announced is a series of Oxford Seminars starting in October at Linacre College , Oxford.

See also links to blogposts: ECOBATE 2011 (1-4) ; ECOBATE 2013 (1-4) ; ECOBATE 2014 (1-3). 
posted by Charles Bazlinton. Author, The Free Lunch - Fairness with Freedom

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Making Money Work: Lord Turner, Steve Keen, Chris Giles & Richard Spencer on Corbynonmics and money creation.

Lord Adair Turner has learnt a bit on the practicalities of speechmaking since we last reported (see ECOBATE 2014, 11 Nov 2014). In Winchester his PowerPoint slides were lost en route and but he did a brilliant job improvising. At the Positive Money event Making Money Work at Central Hall, Westminster on Monday 7th Sept he safely had 2 paper copies of his slides for each of the 200 or so attendees. His talk developed his ECOBATE 2014 theme and gave much detail as to how he thinks government economic and monetary policy technically could, and politically should, develop. 

He said that he did not agree with the extreme radical Positive Money view for the abolition of fractional reserve banking and its replacement with 100% reserve banking. But the 2008 crisis and slow recovery since cannot be understood without a clear understanding of the nature of debt, money and credit. Pre-crisis and for many decades we were far too relaxed about the private credit creation by banks. Post-crisis we are too terrified of the potential of what he termed 'overt money finance' (OMF) of government deficits -another name for this is 'helicopter money'. 

Lord T said there is no reason whatsoever against helicopter money, it was all a question of how much you do. A small amount will stimulate a little with no excessive inflation. He thought it would however be excessive to fund 10% of the fiscal deficit this way as it would bring hyperinflation and destroy the economy. 

In discussion  - Chair: Fran Boait (Positive Money) ; Prof Steve Keen (Univ of Kingston) & Chris Giles (Financial Times) - the matter of the doubtful effectiveness of Quantitative Easing (QE) so far was discussed in contrast to OMF. Chris Giles thought that whilst he would never rule any new idea out (e.g. Jeremy Corbyn's 'Peoples QE') he was sceptical that it is seen as a sort of magic solution which has no cost. He was cautious of using OMF as a monetary tool.  If it was used simply to put new money in everyone's bank account, good, but to use it to spend on infrastructure was fraught with problems - you might have to halt the construction of the HS2 railway unfinished, due to monetary rules.  Money is not the only driver of the economy, in addition there is housing and planning policy and new macroeconomic tools as to how banks should lend; however in the future QE might be seen to have been OMF.  Here Lord T agreed that QE, as started in 2009, might become post-facto OMF. He illustrated this with his view that with the Bank of Japan owning 60% of GDP in Japanese Government Bonds he thought it highly improbable that these would be repaid or sold off by the BoJ. He thinks it will become helicopter money and be shown to be a permanent monetisation of government debt. ''That is going to happen and I would place a bet on it'.

He thinks that we should consider a 2009 UK scenario where a 4% of GDP fiscal deficit was planned and £350bn 'reversible' QE issued. He put it that it might have been announced that 5% would be planned with the extra 1% being OMF money creation and non-reversible. He said that this would send an important signal and be much clearer than the current scenario of whether QE really is reversible.   

Currently the Bank of England is apparently doing two things: 1.Managing interest rates and QE for inflation targeting. 2. Managing bank lending through loan requirements and bank capital requirements, for economic safety and stability all without managing demand.  What he sees as actually happening is that the BoE is starting to manage the allocation capital as seen in the Funding for Lending Scheme to be directed to SME loans.  Five years ago such government allocation of capital was unthinkable! 

The cause of the crisis had been the mis-allocation of capital through private credit creation by banks.  Too much credit chased existing assets rather than to finance productive investment, which Richard Werner calls 'credit for GDP transactions'.   This caused a debt overhang with the danger of deflation.  Beyond the supply of consumer goods to most households,  housing becomes another way to compete between members of society to gain a more attractive home or stay at a hotel. As locations offer varying benefits this competition encourages more debt. Banks encourage this, being biased towards property lending due to the collateral available. Steve Keen pointed out the reverse case of lending to entrepreneurs where, maybe,  four out of five loans might fail with loss of principal. This shows the difficulties that banks can have in lending to productive ventures. 

Lord Turner questioned how widely we might be able to spread a new understanding of the monetary issues being discussed.  In confessional mode, in his new book 'Between Debt and the Devil' he has a chapter 'The crisis I did not see coming'. He had to embark on an intellectual journey to understand themes ignored in his earlier economics education - a frank admission in mid-career from a very high-flying player. He said the very essence of the insight of macroeconomics is that governments and states are not the sum of households. In the personal household economy, books have to be balanced, but the state economy is different. Steve Keen said whilst he was impressed by the new openness at the Bank of England but in contrast the political class think the government should be running a surplus. 'They vie with each other: 'My surplus is bigger than your surplus' ' which is the equivalent of banks believing they should be receiving more loan repayments than they put out in loans. Governments ought to be running a deficit with money creation financing a large part of that.  Clearly from the view of the panel, economics education should be transformed so that these things are understood in universities, but beyond that how easily can the ordinary voter understand it? As to conventional economics theory, the efficient market theory is clearly wrong as no financial trader would get up in the morning if it was, since they would not be able to make any money! But the public needs to know that economics will never give as clear answers in its field as for instance an engineer can give in designing a bridge.

In Q&A I said I was involved in helping to establish a local community bank - Hampshire Community Bank which would lend locally and give its profits to local good causes. Was this a good foil to the problems being discussed that had arisen through centralised, international banks?  By their strong applause the audience clearly appreciated the idea.
Steve Keen thought it was an excellent idea as local knowledge would inform bank decisions on loans. Centralised banking is essentially 'collateral banking' which is dangerous, but as Richard Werner emphasises local banks are the strength of German banking. 

Chris Giles said local banks are obviously good, but that a weakness might be that local firms gain loans merely by being local and not through normal due diligence and good banking practice. (Note: If I had been able to respond a comment could have been that this danger is just as likely with non-local banks! Just look at what happened leading up to the 2008 crisis. Where was careful banking practice by national /international banks then?)  

Richard Spencer, an economist whom Jeremy Corbyn uses to inform his People's QE, said that 5 weeks ago he hadn't heard of Corbynomics but since then he has been credited with writing it!  Jeremy Corbyn asks what does the economy need?  He thinks we need investment in public infrastructure and this needs money and if needed a deficit, and this if fine because people want to buy bonds. However he thinks the banking system is too powerful and People's QE would mean that the bond route would not always be wholly used and banks not needed for some fraction of the money. Corbyn has said that if the economy is booming People's QE would not be needed as the bond route might be wholly enough.  He (RS) largely agrees with Lord Turner's views apart from central bank independence. He said that for politicians to be told by the central bank the amount of OMF needed is not democracy, it would be rather like being told by bankers how much tax is needed. Politician should listen to able technocrats, such as at the Bank of England. But let's not have bankers in charge, let's have democracy in charge. Strong applause.

From the panel: When politicians had control of interest-rate-setting, public opinion (or party opinion) was often targeted very obviously and the high inflation of the 1970's might be seen as a warning that sole political control was dangerous.  'Commitment devices' (e.g. Committee on Climate Change/ Bank of England) agreed by politicians in order to keep a steady course over time ahead even when it hurts, are useful.  However the ECB has been given far too much control as it defines its own terms for price stability, for instance.      

Natalie Bennett the Green MP asked what the money system would look like if consideration for the environment and for addressing inequality (where everyone has enough) were both addressed. Chris Giles thought a monetary system could not create a better society. Lord Turner thinks that money systems are not an appropriate answer to carbon issues - there are enough devices around already.  Progressive taxation is the device to address inequality, not OMF. Steve Keen thinks that money creation is needed to redirect spending to carbon reduction, no-one will do this for a profit.    

Barb Jacobson for the Basic Income Trust asked about the idea of using money creation for cash payments to everyone?  

The panel agreed with the idea: There should be no problem with ensuring a single payment to each person through NI numbers and tax numbers / It should be directed to paying off personal debt first for those who have it / Alastair Darling tried to do it in 2009 but was told it would take 9 months, so he reduced VAT instead / Australia did the same thing in 2 weeks.

Note: 
Chancellor George Osborne understands the subject of the Making Money Work event, as reported in  this blog   Nov 13 2013:
 ' It is theoretically possible for monetary authorities to finance fiscal deficits through the creation of money. This would allow governments to increase spending or reduce taxation without raising corresponding finance from the private sector.'   See Treasury document quoted para 3.34:  Here 

See the Positive Money official post for the event Making Money Work: HERE

Posted by Charles Bazlinton. Author: The Free Lunch - Fairness with Freedom      

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

ECOBATE 2014 - 3 Lord Adair Turner: Credit creation and its implications

Lord Turner had a problem as the final keynote speaker at ECOBATE 2014 because his slide show went astray en route to the organisers. But we were favoured instead with a bravura oratorical performance such as is rarely seen and heard in these days by the often inept use of PowerPoint. He strode the stage issuing a fascinating flow of ideas, using judicious arm waving to describe the slope of the missing graphs, as needed. One wished that speakers lost their slides more often - it might prompt better speeches and greater audience attention. But our speaker was on top of his subject, so that was obviously vital too.

He acknowledged his debt to Professor Richard Werner:
          'Richard's writings on monetary policy and the importance of a credit focus are absolutely important, and very important to the evolution of my thinking.'    
He recalled a Financial Policy Committee meeting at the Bank of England in the autumn of 2011, where in a discussion about whether the policies under discussion would stimulate credit or restrict credit, he said 'we had to talk about what the credit is used for' but was told very firmly that: 'it was not the role of a central bank to ask questions about the market allocation of credit'.  However, central banks across the world are now actually doing what he suggested then. For example the Bank of England's subsidised Funding for Lending scheme specifically wants: 'incentives for lending skewed towards SME's' (small and medium enterprises), rather than real estate lending and mortgages.

He warned that there is a general understanding that this new tendency is only an extreme passing phase and that we ought to return to the pre-crisis orthodoxy of inflation targeting as the monetary aim, but he said: 'We cannot, we will not, we should not return to that' . Monetary policy in the future must distinguish between the different purposes to which credit is put.

A diversion into different economics theories followed:
a) Private borrowing in advanced economies has gone from 50% of GDP in the 1950s to 170% in 2007. Without reasonably safe debt for railway funding in the C19 we would not have had the mobilisation of capital that drove the industrial revolution. Thus some see high private sector leverage to be good for economic growth, e.g. India at 10%, needs more.
b) Others suppose that leverage and the details of the entire financial system are not important. Quoting Mervyn King:
         'The dominant new Keynesian model of monetaray economics lacks an account of financial intermediation so that money, credit and banks play no meaningful role.'
Lord T. taking us along with him in our bafflement: Surely if interest rates are the main economic tool doesn't that work through the financial system?  It became clearer that the theory contains its own odd irrationality. He said that interest rate manoeuvering to achieve low and stable inflation 'somehow' operates through the financial system, which is understood by it exponents to be rather like a veil which itself is not impacted by the interest rate.  The theory goes that whatever credit creation and lending happened for whatever interest rate and whatever the credit was allocated towards must be optimal. [All very Humpty Dumptyesque - Alice in Wonderland: 'A word means just what I intend it to mean...']

The whole basis of this comes from Knut Wicksell who promulgated a theory of a 'natural' interest rate which policy makers should aim to target so as to prevent inflation. Trouble is no one can observe what the natural rate is so central banks use the policy interest rate to try and achieve low inflation and assume that credit in the economy is optimal.  This relies on two assumptions that are mistaken. Undergraduate text books often do not contain details of banking and finance but if they do they state that banks take deposits from savers and lend it to entrepreneurs. This is a mythological understanding of how banks and capital markets work. The truth which was fundamental to Hayek and to Schumpeter is the understanding that banks create credit money and purchasing power. They do not lend pre-existing deposits.   If this is not understood we cannot understood the real economy.

Lending can be used for capital investment, for consumption and for buying assets.  He said that over 70% of lending is towards pre-existing real estate and this finances a competition for a scarce, location-specific supply of urban land. The highly misleading text book role of banks: to intermediate household savings into productive business investment is a minor function today.

The emphasis on real estate lending creates a cyclical pattern which is self-feeding. Banks experience few losses as the boom starts and are able to lend more and the rising prices enable them to extend even more credit. Hopeful property owners, fearful of losing out add to the pressure. This is at the core of financial instability and the crises of the last 50 years. Whether in the UK, Japan, Sweden and Norway and elsewhere world wide, real estate credit is the root cause.  Post-peak, borrowers become determined to pay down their over-leveraged debt and withhold investment from elsewhere and the deep recession we are now experiencing endures. 

How do we get out of all this debt? It gets moved around the economy. For every % point of private debt reduction we get a raised % point in public debt because tax revenues are reduced due to recession and welfare has had to rise. All public policy levers are locked off. We worry about how to pay back the public deficit, we try and stimulate the economy by reducing interest rates without the desired response. So why have the low interest rates failed to bring inflation? The answer is the use to which the credit is put. He cited Richard Werner's book (New Paradigm in Macroeconomics) and his studies on the disaggregation theory of credit. The rise in credit for assets and particularly for real estate is a good indicator of future financial crisis but not of inflation in the real economy.  In these circumstances the tool of inflation targeting using interest rates is not usable. To raise interest rates from 5% to 5.5% to dampen property price rises of 10% would be ineffective but to raise them to 10% would cause serious damage to the rest of the economy. He mentioned the failed experiment by the Swedish Riksbank (see this blog) as evidence of a central bank that tried this.  

He wants central banks to set risk weighting far higher for mortgage lending than banks would set for themselves, to take account of the social risk; to use loan-to-value limits; and to introduce a new type of bank with restricted property lending powers but enabling productive lending. He ended on the emphasis that the differentiation of what credit is to be used for 'should be, will be and must be' a permanent part of the financial scene.

In the questions session following I put it that,  frequently in this ECOBATE event the root cause of the crisis was mentioned to be property and real estate lending and speculation. Would the panel comment about the use of land value taxation to restrain the tendency to use credit in the property market and 'remove speculators' asbestos gloves' so that they wouldn't speculate so readily?
Lord Turner acknowledged, as Thomas Piketty has shown (Capital in the 21st Century) that wealth disparities are strongly correlated with increasing urban land values. He thinks tax favouritism such as exempting property gains from capital gains tax is a public policy making the situation worse. But that public policy could 'lean against' the situation by using Henry George's land value tax. He said we should be aware of possible effects from changes in public policy that cause instability in the economy and the need to offset those effects with other changes.
Sir John Gieve said that we should not think that hitting property for tax in place of VAT and income tax is possible, due to the public debt overhang which needs servicing. But yes, property taxation will increase along with other types. In an interesting follow-on point, Richard Werner said, regarding the high government debt and the high taxes needed for servicing it, that this arises from our debt-based monetary system.  He is a well known advocate of  a debt-free monetary system (YouTube) that would reduce much taxation.

POST CONFERENCE news item, Lord Turner 11 Nov 2014 in the Financial Times:  Print Money to fund the deficit  states: 
           'Government deficits should be financed with new money created by the central bank and added permanently to the money supply. ... There are no technical reasons to reject this option, only the fear that once we break the taboo, money financed deficits will be used on too large a scale'.  
He sees such a policy is inevitable, thinking that current QE policies may be even more risky. He thinks the above would bring a return to normal interest rates which would counter highly leveraged financial engineering caused by low interest rates.   

Reported by Charles Bazlinton from the ECOBATE 2014 event in Winchester 8 October 2014.  
     

Friday, October 31, 2014

ECOBATE 2014 - 2. John Kay: Have Banking Lessons been Learned?

Prof Don Nutbeam, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Southampton introduced Prof John Kay whose talk was headed: 'Have Banking Lessons been Learned?'. He can also be seen on a video interview  given to Information Daily at Winchester Ecobate 2014.

He wants structural changes to the banking and financial environment rather than more and more detailed regulations and rules of the type that were in place in 2007/8 when the crisis hit and which failed to stop it. He thinks that another crisis might have to be endured before we put in place what is needed. The total sum of financial derivatives is around £700trn which nonsensically is three times the value of the entire world assets. Only about 3% of the £7trn of all bank balance sheets is used for non-financial i.e. productive, real economy purposes. John Kay proposes that the activities of finance be separated out: a) utility/ useful / payments / and such boring activities; and b) the rest such as buying / selling and casino-like things. The former are serious and relationship based and the latter are buccaneering, speculative and transactional. He spoke of the high speed cable link between Chicago and New York built costing $300m which achieves an advantage in time of 0.7milliseconds to the traders who use it. Such business bears little connection to ordinary life. 

Historically stock exchanges came about when huge capital amounts were needed and savings were widely dispersed, in order to fund such as railways, automobile manufacture and brewery plants. Nowadays large capital amounts are not needed for start-ups. There is a need for finance to cover new business's losses, but when such as Facebook came to public offering and raised $16bn there was some perplexity as to what to do with the money!   The knowledge economy generates its own cash rapidly. 

He sees a particular mix of themes and players in current entrepreneurial activity. Basic research funded by governments, university involvement, previously successful businesses providing capital and local banks for local capital needs. Regulation should be used to help bring about the above - but not of a type with ever more detailed rules of the kind envisaged through Basel 1, 2, 3, etc.
Charles Bazlinton reporting on the 2014 European Conference on Banking and the Economy. Winchester, UK.  8th October 2014     
      

Thursday, October 16, 2014

ECOBATE 2014 -1 Charles Goodhart and global trends


A single conference (2011) might be a one-off. The second (2013) a mere coincidence. But with number three (8 Oct) comes a strong hint that ECOBATE is now established in the sustainable economics and finance world. Prof Richard Werner (University of Southampton), again performed his conference double-act, providing a packed day for finance and economics people with dozens of academic papers and a keynote address from Prof Charles Goodhart; this was followed by an afternoon session to which the general public came too, addressed by eminent speakers such as John Kay, Lord Adair Turner, Sir John Gieve and Ralf Barkey. We are seven years from the near collapse of the financial world. Is the crisis over?  Or only just for now? What did ECOBATE 2014 add to the debate?

Charles Goodhart told us (in his academic session Keynote speech 'Monetary Policy and Long Term Trends') that as a reaction to some of the colleagues he meets who - for the purposes of making money -  'have an attention span  of hours or days', he would give us an overview of decades past and future. He told us to be wary of the view: 'What has happened will happen', for this will be increasingly inappropriate for the next 10 years or longer.

For about the last 30 years the world's labour share of GDP has declined due to a massive increase in the the numbers of workers per head of population. Factors in this include: improved education, decline in the fertility rate, women's rising incomes, longevity increases and the decline in retirement age. The increased supply of labour exerts a downward pressure on real wages so that, e.g. in the US from 1980, wages have been virtually static. Additionally, if production has been able to relocate abroad for reasons of lower labour costs it has done so, again restraining wages back home. A consequence of this is the almost total disappearance of private sector trade unions. Prof Goodhart called the phenomenon a 'demographic sweet spot'. Inequalities between countries is falling but within countries is rising.

Labour-saving innovations also bear down on labour needs, and capital needs too are much lower for firms like Google, Apple and Amazon compared with the old technologies such as steel mills and oil refineries which needed 'massive great chunks of capital'.

Turning to policy implications of all this, weak consumer demand due to the relative lowering of poor consumers' wages helps reduce inflationary pressure. Rich consumers however - running out of the need for yet more consumer goods - pour their spare income into assets which is encouraged by the low interest rates of an easier monetary policy. This real estate wealth does not stimulate the real economy, as people don't spend the increase in their house price. Generally the trickle-down effect to the poor through making the rich richer via monetary policy is pretty limited, as is its effect on business investment. What easing monetary policy does in lowering interest rates, is to raise asset prices, particularly house and land prices - housing finance is most susceptible to it; and, except maybe in the US, house prices have gone up more than wages and incomes: 'shot up compared with the nominal compensation index'.

Unable to afford the credit needed, first time house buyers are left behind, especially if their parents aren't rich enough to help.  He said it was not just a 'London effect' but world-wide. First time buyers are in a dangerous position being only able to afford a relatively small deposit, with the rest as debt and if anything goes wrong, if prices collapse, they are 'really totally screwed'. He cited Mian and Sufi's book House of Debt who say that in those circumstances consumption collapses as people try and keep their households together. This comes from a combination of weak labour and first-time buyers in trouble, all flowing from the lax expansionary monetary policies.

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) wants the loose monetary policy to end and to regain more normal house prices to incomes. Objections are that practical politics does not allow this through monetary policy means - so what else can you do? What fiscal policies might address the problem?  With pressures due to the increasing numbers of the elderly needing costly care and with high debt levels, possibilities are few - so what might be done?  'Structural reform' is mentioned and often these measures are little more than 'let's hope something turns up', but there are reforms that usually remove the wealth of those who have some monopoly position. As an example is the topical Uber smartphone app which puts potential passengers in touch with car hire drivers and thereby threatens the monopolies that officially registered taxi drivers enjoy which guarantees their income and wealth. He would like the use of a covered bonds system for backing the mortgage market as in Denmark .  Another solution from House of Debt (ch 12): shared responsibility so that borrower and lender would take equity and debt. He recommended that the government enter into such a system to require an equity share by the lender and to provide one. As an example he commented that the government's Help to Buy scheme had just such an equity share arrangement and he is a strong supporter of it an wants it to be continued and increased.

He thinks that the easier monetary scene and associated property problems will continue for a bit but demographic changes will lead to transformations ahead. The Support Ratio (workers per dependant, where the higher the ratio the greater the number of workers per dependent) will generally drop having peaked in about 2010 for most emerging countries. China will experience a reduction of workers and this will have inflationary results. For India however, the ratio will rise to 2030 as will Africa to 2050. Japan had a rising ratio to 1990 and is now falling. Economic growth (see Demographic Dividend) accompanies a rising ratio which occurs due to reductions in child mortality, leading to fewer births. Assuming good governance (as China with its competent administration, good infrastructure, hard working people and education) this enables the new workforce to participate fully - the demographic sweet spot. But there is a rapidly reversing demographic dividend in Japan, Germany and Italy, with a slower decline for the UK, US, Australia and Canada. The reason being that the number of workers is in decline and each worker is having to support elderly parents. Japan has been there for some time, US is projected to be relatively benign but Germany will experience a large drop - all this based on UN data and assumptions about immigration.

The structure of the international monetary system  whereby: 'China, Japan, Germany and the oil producers have been running massive current account surpluses and the US has been running massive great deficits. This isn't going to last that much longer because demography is going to change this dramatically'. During the demographic sweet spot when worker numbers increase rapidly, people save a lot and the savings ratio collapses when those demographics change, e.g. Japan (has done) e.g. China (will do). Current account surpluses will go down as the savings ratio declines. Additionally if the measures to achieve constraints on global warming are successful in bringing cheaper and more efficient renewables, the value of  hydrocarbons will drop, leading to the oil producers' current account surpluses disappearing too.  He predicted that from 5-15 years time there will be a swap whereby China, Germany and oil producers will move from surplus to deficit and the US, due to demography, 'is going to sweep from being the major deficit country to being the major surplus country'.

The demographic changes leading to a world savings decline will reduce investment, but residential housing investment (despite declining population) less so because the income elasticity of demand for housing is very high. Business investment is low because labour is cheap, but with fewer workers in the future labour will become more expensive and capital investment will increase to get more output from an expensive workforce. Tax rates on workers will go up. We can only consume what we produce and production each year depends on workers producing; if there is an increasing army of the old and if society believes that the consumption of the old to consume should be equal to that of the young, something has to be taken away from the workers to cover that. Thus we will have increasingly scarce labour subject to an increasing proportion of tax - all this within about 20 years. Real interest rates will rise as savings decline. We don't know what will happen to growth as productivity and innovation are unknowns. Robert Gordon (TED Talk) thinks the easy innovations are over. Output per worker will remain stable but rate of growth of output and consumption per head will decline.

'The world is going to change in the next 10 years - don't assume it's going to be the same as the last 10. It won't !'
   
In questions: Richard Werner asked if CG thought that as one of the influences on economic matters is credit should we be more careful in future to focus on productive credit rather than financial and asset credit? Designing the banking system in order to help reverse current problems would produce a more equal income distribution, among other things.

CG: 'We need to think very carefully about the structure of our financial system' . It was a great pity the building society system collapsed. If it hadn't happened we would all have been in a much better position. As to banking the old idea was that your assets should not be of a much greater duration than your liabilities - the old Real Bills Doctrine -  as a banker you invest in bills of exchange, lending for short term inventory and don't lend for long term capital purposes such as mortgages. Such traditional banking 'would mean that the banks would play a smaller role - not necessarily a bad thing' . The narrative of the great financial crisis was all wrong, being:  'bad banks, doing naughty things and bailed out by taxpayers'. However: 'the real narrative was that it was a failure of the housing finance nexus, how housing finance works, and we have done virtually nothing to reform that, so we are still in difficulties.'

To a questioner asking for his comments on the Islamic mortgage which involves the lender buying the property and the borrower taking a gradually reducing lease on it, Mr Goodhart said it is very similar to Mian and Sufi's ideas for shared responsibility mortgages.

Prof Goodhart's talk was a grand sweep across generations and national and world economies and was a valuable wide-angle lens view and should be useful to refer to ahead. I puzzled why, having identified the cause of the economic crisis as the working of housing finance, he only commented on solutions that just seem to make normal mortgages slightly safer. No problem with that of course, but what about: a)  land value tax, which would increase the supply of land and housing and reduce price and speculation - an Uber-like measure, see above; or  b) 'window guidance' on credit allocation?   OK, his bit about the Old Bills Doctrine, was a sort of 'subdued yes' to the credit allocation question, but without elaboration - although at that point he did have a flight to catch. So we were left a bit cheated as to his further insights into such solutions.
Posted by Charles Bazlinton. Author The Free Lunch - Fairness with Freedom

Saturday, October 04, 2014

ECOBATE 2014 Conference Programme

The programme for the European Conference on Banking and the Economy (ECOBATE 2014) is to be found on
http://www.southampton.ac.uk/cbfsd/ecobate2014/programme.page?
Click on 'Conference Programme' at top right of page.

At the Guildhall in Winchester, Hampshire, nearly 50 academic papers will be delivered (9.0am to 3.30pm).

At the free public session (3.40pm to 7.40pm) opened by Cllr Roy Perry Leader of Hampshire County Council a Money Question Time panel will be chaired by Prof Neil Marriott, Vice-Chancellor, University of Winchester.
Subject: How would you reform banking?
Panellists: Charlie Haswell (HSBC); Kath Shimmin (Blake Morgan, Solicitors); Fergal McCann (Irish Central Bank) and Wesley Wright (Activist).

From 5.05pm the final plenary will be opened by Prof Don Nutbeam, Vice-Chancellor of University of Southampton and Keynote addresses will be delivered by:

John Kay, Financial Times: Have banking lessons been learned?
Sir John Gieve, former Deputy-Governor Bank of England: Is structural reform of the banking sector needed?
Ralf W Barkey, President Rhine-Westfalian Association of Cooperatives, Germany: People's Banks and Raiffeisenbanks in Germnay - A model for Europe?
Lord Adair Turner, former Chairman FSA, Senior Fellow INET: Whither Monetary and Banking Reform
Prof Richard Werner, Director, University of Southampton CBFSD: Needed policies to Reform the UK Banking Sector

Prof Werner will conclude with: Local Banking - what have we learnt?

Bookings may be made for the academic and the free public sessions on Eventbrite  but you may just turn up on the day and register on arrival.